A review of the week past
and the week ahead

Welcome to City Index with Tony Sycamore

Monday 24th June 2019


What mattered last week:

  • The S&P 500 finished the week +1.8%, to lock in 3 straight weeks of gains as the Fed expressed a willingness to cut rates and it was confirmed that Presidents Trump and Xi would meet at the G20 summit.
  • The ECB and the RBA also indicated they were considering further easing of monetary policy.
  • The prospect of lower interest rates sent gold to 5-year highs as it closed the week +4.50% at U.S. $1400.
  • Crude oil finished the week +10% after the downing of a U.S. drone and news that Iran would resume uranium enrichment in late June.
  • In Australia, the ASX200 made fresh post-GFC highs and is now just 3% below its all-time high.
  • The AUDUSD closed above .6900c as the U.S. dollar fell in response to a more dovish than expected FOMC meeting.

For the week ahead, the key events are:

Australia: RBA Governor Philip Lowe on a panel at the ANU (Monday), private sector credit (Friday).

  • RBA Governor Philip Lowe (Monday): Is on the panel at the ANU Crawford Australian Leadership Forum in Canberra. The focus is likely to be on the global economic outlook. However, there may be an opportunity for Governor Lowe to provide further guidance on monetary policy ahead of the July board meeting. Currently, market pricing shows 20bp or 80% of a cut priced for July.

New Zealand: Balance of trade (Tuesday), RBNZ interest rate meeting (Wednesday), ANZ business confidence (Thursday), ANZ consumer confidence (Friday).

China: Industrial profits (Thursday).

Japan: BoJ interest rate meeting minutes (Tuesday), retail sales (Thursday), G20 summit starts (Friday).

U.S.: S&P/Case-Shiller HPI, consumer confidence, new home sales (Tuesday), durable goods (Wednesday), pending home sales, Chicago PMI (Thursday), personal income and spending (Friday). 

  • Durable goods (Wednesday): Durable goods data has been soft of late, with concerns mounting that trade tensions are disrupting supply chains.  After a chunky -2.1% decline in April, the headline is expected to rise by +0.2% in May.

Fed speakers on the wires this week include Harker, Williams, Bostic, Fed Chairman Powell and Bullard.

Canada: Wholesale sales (Tuesday), monthly GDP and PPI (Friday).

Euro Area: German IFO (Monday), German Gfk consumer confidence (Wednesday), EA business confidence, economic sentiment and German inflation (Thursday), EA flash CPI (Friday).

  • Euro flash CPI (Friday): After starting the year at 1.1%, core inflation has been trending lower and is likely to print at 0.8%yoy in June.

UK: Gfk consumer confidence (Friday).

About TECHFX TRADERS

The session will be run by Tony Sycamore founder of TECHFX TRADERS. Tony has over 20 years’ experience trading primarily at Goldman Sachs and he also worked in senior Institutional roles at Commonwealth Bank and BNP Paribas. His experience has allowed him to see and work with some of the biggest global traders.

Finalist – Best Bank FX Research & Strategy
Tony was the only Australian finalist nominated for Best Bank FX Research & Strategy at the 2016 Technical Analyst awards.

Finalists: Commonwealth Bank of Australia – Tony Sycamore, Director Institutional FX • Banque Pictet & Cie • Credit Suisse RBC Capital Markets • Royal Bank of Scotland • Scotia Bank

Tony Sycamore

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