What mattered last week:
- The S&P500 fell for a third straight week, as September lived up to its reputation for volatility.
- Despite the FOMC meeting providing dovish reinforcement for the Feds new policy framework announced at Jackson Hole.
- Economic data in the U.S continues to improve. However, the rate of improvement is slowing and with a 4th U.S. stimulus package on hold, economic concerns remain.
- New coronavirus cases continued to trend lower in the U.S, and Australia. However, cases in India and Europe continue to rise, particularly in Spain and France.
- Much stronger than expected Australian employment data, pushed back the urgency for new easing measures from the RBA.
- Volatility, as measured by the VIX index, closed lower at 25.8.
- U.S. 10-year yields closed higher, near 0.70%.
- Gold closed back above U.S. $1950.00.
- Crude oil surged over 10%, closing at U.S $41.32/bbl.
- The ASX200 closed mostly unchanged at 5864.5.
- In FX, the AUDUSD closed marginally higher near .7290.
For the week ahead, the key events are:
Australia: Speech by RBA Deputy Governor Guy Debelle (Tuesday).
- Speech by RBA Deputy Governor Guy Debelle (Tuesday): Debelle will deliver a speech on Tuesday titled “The Australian Economy and Monetary Policy” at the Australian Industry Group conference. Unlikely to be a market mover but worth keeping an eye out for just in case.
New Zealand: RBNZ interest rate meeting (Wednesday), balance of trade (Thursday).
- RBNZ interest rate meeting (Wednesday): The RBNZ is like to reiterate that the OCR will be left unchanged until March and remind the market that it is examing 4 policy options if more stimulus is required including expanding the LSAP program, reducing the OCR below zero, a term lending scheme to banks, and the purchase of foreign assets (such as foreign government bonds).
China: China Loan Prime rate (Monday).
Japan: Jibun flash PMIs (Wednesday), BoJ monetary policy meeting minutes (Thursday).
U.S: Existing home sales (Tuesday), house price index, Markit flash PMI’s (Wednesday), initial jobless claims, new home sales (Thursday), durable goods orders (Friday).
Canada: Nothing of note.
Euro Area: German consumer confidence and German and EA Markit flash PMI’s (Wednesday), IFO business survey (Thursday).
- Euro area ‘flash’ PMIs (Wednesday): The second wave of the coronavirus pandemic in Europe suggests that Euro Area PMI’s are vulnerable to a decline in September.
UK: Markit flash PMI’s (Wednesday), GFK consumer confidence (Friday).
About TECHFX TRADERS
The session will be run by Tony Sycamore founder of TECHFX TRADERS. Tony has over 20 years’ experience trading primarily at Goldman Sachs and he also worked in senior Institutional roles at Commonwealth Bank and BNP Paribas. His experience has allowed him to see and work with some of the biggest global traders.
Finalist – Best Bank FX Research & Strategy
Tony was the only Australian finalist nominated for Best Bank FX Research & Strategy at the 2016 Technical Analyst awards.
Finalists: Commonwealth Bank of Australia – Tony Sycamore, Director Institutional FX • Banque Pictet & Cie • Credit Suisse RBC Capital Markets • Royal Bank of Scotland • Scotia Bank
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