What mattered last week:
- Strong economic data, vaccine hopes, and more talk of stimulus helped the S&P500 rally another 1.50% last week.
- Also supported by a 7.5% gain in Chinese stocks following a “bullish” article in the China Securities Journal.
- Offsetting surging new Covid-19 cases in the U.S, Latin America, and in Australia.
- Volatility, as measured by the VIX index, closed marginally lower at 27.3.
- U.S. 10-year yields closed marginally lower near 0.65%.
- Gold rallied for a fifth straight week, closing near $1798.
- Crude oil closed mostly unchanged at U.S. $40.55/bbl.
- The ASX200 shed 2.30% to close at 5919.2 following Melbourne’s return to lockdown.
- In FX, the AUDUSD closed the week mostly unchanged at .6950.
For the week ahead, the key events are:
A key focus for traders this week will again be on new Covid-19 cases predominantly in the U.S, Latin America and in Australia.
Australia: NAB business confidence (Tuesday), Westpac consumer confidence (Wednesday), employment (Thursday).
- Employment (Thursday): The market is looking for an increase of 112k jobs in June. The unemployment rate is expected to rise from 7.1% to 7.4% due to a rebound in the participation rate.
New Zealand: Inflation Q2 (Thursday), business NZ PMI (Friday).
China: Balance of trade (Tuesday), GDP Q2, employment, fixed asset investment, retail sales, industrial production (Thursday).
- GDP Q2 (Thursday): GDP is expected to grow by 9.6% in the June quarter following a -9.8% decline in the March quarter.
Japan: BoJ interest rate decision (Wednesday).
U.S: CPI (Tuesday), industrial production (Wednesday), retail sales (Thursday), housing starts, and building permits (Friday).
*Fed speakers on the wires this week include Brainard, Bullard, and Williams.
*Companies reporting June quarter earnings this week include JP Morgan, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, IBM, and Netflix.
Canada: BoC interest rate decision (Thursday).
Euro Area: German CPI, EA industrial production, EA and German ZEW economic sentiment survey (Tuesday), ECB interest rate meeting (Thursday), EA CPI (Friday).
- ECB interest rate meeting (Thursday): The ECB meeting is expected to be a non-event this month after the ECB significantly bolstered its quantitative easing program at its last meeting.
UK: Balance of trade, industrial production, GDP (Tuesday), CPI and PPI (Wednesday), employment (Thursday), GFK consumer confidence (Friday).
About TECHFX TRADERS
The session will be run by Tony Sycamore founder of TECHFX TRADERS. Tony has over 20 years’ experience trading primarily at Goldman Sachs and he also worked in senior Institutional roles at Commonwealth Bank and BNP Paribas. His experience has allowed him to see and work with some of the biggest global traders.
Finalist – Best Bank FX Research & Strategy
Tony was the only Australian finalist nominated for Best Bank FX Research & Strategy at the 2016 Technical Analyst awards.
Finalists: Commonwealth Bank of Australia – Tony Sycamore, Director Institutional FX • Banque Pictet & Cie • Credit Suisse RBC Capital Markets • Royal Bank of Scotland • Scotia Bank
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