A review of the week past
and the week ahead

Welcome to City Index with Tony Sycamore

Monday 15th April 2019


What mattered last week:

  • U.S. equity markets extended gains last week. The S&P500 and the NASDAQ are now within 1% of their 2018 all-time highs.
  • Supported by strong bank earnings in the U.S., dovish central banks, the Brexit deadline being extended, and US-China trade negotiations which continue to progress.
  • In China, new yuan loans, total social financing data for March point to a continued bounce in economic activity in China.
  •  Chinese banks extended 1.69 trillion yuan in new yuan loans in March, up from 885.8 billion yuan in February and well above market expectations for 1.2 trillion yuan.
  • Despite the IMF downgrading its global growth forecasts to 3.3% for this year from 3.5% and fears of a U.S. – European trade war as the U.S. threatened retaliatory tariffs on $US11bn worth of European imports, in response to EU subsidies for Airbus.
  • Australian Prime Minister, Scott Morrison called an election for May 18th.
  • The ASX 200, reflecting investor caution ahead of the Federal election, continued for the 8th week in a row, to revolve around 6200.
  • The AUDUSD gained over 1% for the week, to close just above .7170 and above 12-month downtrend resistance.

For the week ahead, the key events are:

Australia: RBA meeting minutes (Tuesday), Westpac leading index (Wednesday), employment (Thursday).

  • Employment (Thursday): March jobs data is expected to show a 12,000 gain in employment and a rise in unemployment to 5.0% from 4.9%.

New Zealand: 1Q CPI (Wednesday), balance of trade (Friday).

  • 1Q CPI (Wednesday): The expectation is for headline CPI to rise by 0.3% in the March quarter and result in a fall in annual inflation from 1.9% to 1.7%. This is likely to see the market continue to talk about an imminent cut in the OCR by the RBNZ.

China: House price index (Tuesday), fixed asset investment, GDP, industrial production, retail sales (Wednesday), industrial capacity utilisation (Friday).

Japan: Balance of trade, capacity utilisation (Wednesday), CPI (Friday).

U.S.: Industrial production (Tuesday), NAHB housing market index and balance of trade (Wednesday), Fed Beige book, Philly Fed manufacturing, retail sales, business inventories, Markit flash PMI’s (Thursday), building permits and housing starts (Friday),

Fed speakers on the wires this week include; Evans and Rosengren and March quarter earnings reports will continue.

  • Retail Sales (Thursday): After a surprise -0.2% fall in February, the market is looking for a strong rebound of + 0.9% in headline retail sales, which would be the strongest print since October 2018.  

Canada: CPI, balance of trade (Wednesday) and retail sales (Thursday).

Euro Area: EA and Germany ZEW business survey (Tuesday), EA balance of trade (Wednesday), EA and German Markit PMI’s (Thursday).

  • EA and German Markit PMI’s (Thursday): The expectation is for a both the EA and the German composite PMI’s to edge slightly higher from their late 2018/early 2019 lows.

UK: Rightmove HPI (Monday), labour market report (Tuesday), CPI and PPI (Wednesday), retail sales (Thursday).

About TECHFX TRADERS

The session will be run by Tony Sycamore founder of TECHFX TRADERS. Tony has over 20 years’ experience trading primarily at Goldman Sachs and he also worked in senior Institutional roles at Commonwealth Bank and BNP Paribas. His experience has allowed him to see and work with some of the biggest global traders.

Finalist – Best Bank FX Research & Strategy
Tony was the only Australian finalist nominated for Best Bank FX Research & Strategy at the 2016 Technical Analyst awards.

Finalists: Commonwealth Bank of Australia – Tony Sycamore, Director Institutional FX • Banque Pictet & Cie • Credit Suisse RBC Capital Markets • Royal Bank of Scotland • Scotia Bank

Tony Sycamore

Disclaimer

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