What mattered last week:
- A better week for global stock markets, and the S&P 500 enjoyed its strongest week since 2009, bouncing 10% from recent lows.
- The rally gained traction following another round of aggressive easing measures from the Federal Reserve on Monday as well as the passing of a U.S $2tn stimulus bill.
- However, the U.S. equity market still remains over 26% below its February high as the number of Covid-19 cases continuing to soar in the U.S. and Europe and social distancing laws remain in place.
- Yields on the U.S. 10-year bond fell back to near 0.67%, supported by central bank bond-buying programs
- Following two weeks of losses, gold rebounded strongly to close over 8.5% higher, near U.S $1625.
- No respite for crude oil futures, falling another 5% last week to close near U.S $21.50/bbl.
- Locally, the ASX200 ignored the strong gains in offshore equity markets to close the week mostly unchanged near 4850.
- In FX, the AUDUSD benefited from a sharp pullback in the U.S. dollar across the board, gaining over 6% to close above .6150.
For the week ahead, the key events are:
Australia: Private sector credit (Tuesday), building approvals, CoreLogic March house prices, RBA meeting minutes (Wednesday), retail sales (Friday).
- CoreLogic house prices (Wednesday): The impact of Covid-19 and social distancing is expected to show a slowing in house price growth to 0.7% in March.
New Zealand: Building approvals and ANZ business confidence (Tuesday).
China: NBS business condition PMI’s (Tuesday), Caixin manufacturing PMI (Wednesday), Caixin services PMI (Friday).
- NBS business conditions PMI’s (Tuesday): Are expected to rebound from February’s depressed levels, while still remaining in contractionary territory.
Japan: Employment, retail sales, industrial production (Tuesday), Tankan business conditions survey (Wednesday).
U.S: Pending home sales (Monday), S&P Case Shiller home price index, CB consumer confidence (Tuesday), ISM manufacturing PMI (Wednesday), jobless claims (Thursday), employment (Friday).
- Employment (Friday): The market is looking for a print of -175k and for the unemployment rate to rise from 3.5% to above 5%, due to the impact of Covid-19.
Canada: GDP (Tuesday), balance of trade (Thursday).
Euro Area: EA business confidence and economic sentiment index, German inflation (Monday), German employment and EA inflation (Tuesday), German retail sales and EA employment (Wednesday), EA retail sales (Friday).
UK: GFC consumer confidence and current account (Tuesday).
About TECHFX TRADERS
The session will be run by Tony Sycamore founder of TECHFX TRADERS. Tony has over 20 years’ experience trading primarily at Goldman Sachs and he also worked in senior Institutional roles at Commonwealth Bank and BNP Paribas. His experience has allowed him to see and work with some of the biggest global traders.
Finalist – Best Bank FX Research & Strategy
Tony was the only Australian finalist nominated for Best Bank FX Research & Strategy at the 2016 Technical Analyst awards.
Finalists: Commonwealth Bank of Australia – Tony Sycamore, Director Institutional FX • Banque Pictet & Cie • Credit Suisse RBC Capital Markets • Royal Bank of Scotland • Scotia Bank
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