Market News & Analysis


Top Story

What mattered last week and a preview of the week ahead


What mattered last week:

  • U.S. stocks rallied following positive surprises in September quarter earnings reports and a reduction in the tail risks associated with Brexit and U.S. - China trade tensions.
  • Also supporting stocks, weaker than expected U.S. retail sales for September following on from a low CPI number, has increased the probabilities that the Fed cuts rates again next week.
  • Partly offsetting goodwill from the U.S. - China trade truce, the U.S. House passed a bill supporting protesters in Hong Kong.
  • The IMF revised lower its global growth forecast to 3% for 2019 and 3.4% for 2020.
  • Chinese GDP slowed to 6% y/y, the slowest pace since the series began in 1992 and weaker than the consensus forecast of 6.1% y/y.
  • Locally, the AUDUSD closed the week above .6850 aided by better Australian jobs data for September and upbeat comments from RBA Governor Lowe.
  • The ASX 200 closed the week near ~6650, helped higher by gains in the energy, health and the financial sector.

For the week ahead, the key events are:

Australia: Nothing of note.

New Zealand: Balance of trade (Wednesday).

China: House price index (Monday).

Japan: Balance of trade (Monday), Jibun bank PMI’s (Thursday).

U.S.: Existing home sales (Wednesday), house price index, durable goods (Thursday), Markit flash PMI’s, new home sales (Friday).

  • Markit composite PMI (Friday): The expectation is for a modest recovery in the October PMI to 51.6 from 51.00 in September.

September quarter earnings reporting season continues with reports from companies including Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet (ex-Google), Boeing and 3M.

Canada: Retail sales (Tuesday), wholesale sales (Wednesday).

Euro Area: German PPI (Monday), EA consumer confidence, German and EA Markit PMI’s, ECB interest rate meeting (Thursday), German consumer confidence and IFO (Friday).

  • ECB interest rate meeting (Thursday): The ECB meeting this week is expected to be a nonevent following the significant easing package announced at the ECB’s September meeting.

UK: A vote on PM Johnson’s withdrawal agreement (Monday or Tuesday).

Disclaimer

TECH-FX TRADING PTY LTD (ACN 617 797 645) is an Authorised Representative (001255203) of JB Alpha Ltd (ABN 76 131 376 415) which holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL no. 327075)

Trading foreign exchange, futures and CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange, futures or CFDs you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss in excess of your deposited funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange, futures and CFD trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. It is important to note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Any advice provided is general advice only. It is important to note that:

  • The advice has been prepared without taking into account the client’s objectives, financial situation or needs.
  • The client should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice, in light of their own objectives, financial situation or needs, before following the advice.
  • If the advice relates to the acquisition or possible acquisition of a particular financial product, the client should obtain a copy of, and consider, the PDS for that product before making any decision.

From time to time, GAIN Capital Australia Pty Ltd (“we”, “our”) website may contain links to other sites and/or resources provided by third parties. These links and/or resources are provided for your information only and we have no control over the contents of those materials, and in no way endorse their content. Any analysis, opinion, commentary or research-based material on our website is for information and educational purposes only and is not, in any circumstances, intended to be an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the materials on our website are complete or accurate. We are not under any obligation to update any such material.

As such, we (and/or our associated companies) will not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred by you or any third party arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information on our website (other than with regards to any duty or liability that we are unable to limit or exclude by law or under the applicable regulatory system) and any such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed.