Weekly COT Report: Dollar Bulls Retreat

A summary of the weekly Commitment of Traders Report (COT) from CFTC to show market positioning among large speculators.


Read our guide on how to interpret the weekly COT report

As of Tuesday 17th December:

  • Large speculators were net-long USD by $14.5 billion, down by $3.6 billion the prior week
  • Bullish exposure fell to DXY its lowest level in 18-months
  • GBP traders were on the verge of flipping to net-long exposure, at just -5.8k contracts net-short
  • Traders were their least bearish on NZD in 8-months



DXY: Bullish exposure fell to its lowest level in 18-months. Falling by -10.6k contracts, it was its largest weekly fall in 2.5 years. Gross longs are their lowest level since April 2018 and gross shorts have risen to a 3-month high. However, whilst this leaves room for further downside as we head into the new year, the monthly chart is on track for a bullish hammer which would be confirmed with a break above 98.38.


GBP: We were half expecting to see GBP traders flip to net-long exposure after Johnsons election victory. Yet with doubts still lingering over Brexit, it was not to be. And given GBP has retraced all of its election gains, its likely to remain net-short until we see a major breakthrough and confirmation that a hard Brexit will be avoided. For now, 1.30 appears to be a sticky level heading into 2020.


NZD: Bears have continued to capitulate, yet bulls remain cautiously on the side. We expect this to change as we head into 2020 as economic data overwhelmingly points towards a hold, and traders still don’t appear to be positioned for this outcome.


As of Tuesday 17th December:

  • Traders were their most bullish on WTI in 8 months
  • Large speculators flipped to net-long on copper
  • Net-long exposure on platinum was at its highest level since August 2016
  • Net-long exposure to gold remains defiantly long at +286.8k contracts, yet largely unchanged over the past few weeks


WTI: Oil is back above $60 and net-long exposure is at its highest level since April. Technically it remains within a bullish channel, although a two-bar reversal on Friday warns of a retracement from the highs. As we head into the new year, we remain bullish above 58.70 – 59.00.


From time to time, GAIN Capital Australia Pty Ltd (“we”, “our”) website may contain links to other sites and/or resources provided by third parties. These links and/or resources are provided for your information only and we have no control over the contents of those materials, and in no way endorse their content. Any analysis, opinion, commentary or research-based material on our website is for information and educational purposes only and is not, in any circumstances, intended to be an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the materials on our website are complete or accurate. We are not under any obligation to update any such material.

As such, we (and/or our associated companies) will not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred by you or any third party arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information on our website (other than with regards to any duty or liability that we are unable to limit or exclude by law or under the applicable regulatory system) and any such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed.