USDCAD posts a reversal pattern

Is the recent rebound in the USDCAD coming to an end?

Charts (4)

The US Dollar was bearish against most of its major pairs on Wednesday with the exception of the CHF and EUR. On the US economic data front, the Mortgage Bankers Association's Mortgage Applications dropped 4.8% for the week ending September 25th, compared to +6.8% in the week before. Automatic Data Processing's Employment Change rose to 749K on month in September (649K expected), from a revised 481K in August. U.S. GDP rose to -31.4% on quarter in the second quarter third reading (-31.7% expected), from -31.7% in the second quarter second reading. Market News International's Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index spiked to 62.4 on month in September (52.0 expected), from 51.2 in August, a level last reached in 2018. Finally, Pending Home Sales surged 8.8% on month in August (+3.1% expected), compared to +5.9% in July. 

On Wednesday, Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending September 26th are expected to decline to 850K, from 870K in the week before. Continuing Claims for the week ending September 19th are expected to fall to 12,200K, from 12,580K in the prior week. Personal Income for August is expected to slip 2.5% on month, compared to +0.4% in July. Personal Spending for August is expected to rise 0.8% on month, compared to +1.9% in July. Markit's US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index for the September final reading is expected to remain at 53.5 on month, in line with the September preliminary reading. Finally, Construction Spending for August is expected to increase 0.7% on month, compared to +0.1% in July.                        

The Euro was bearish against all of its major pairs. In Europe, the German Federal Statistical Office has reported September jobless rate at 6.3% (vs 6.5% expected) and August retail sales at +3.1% (vs +0.4% on month expected). France's INSEE has posted CPI for September at +0.1% (vs +0.2% on year expected). The U.K. Office for National Statistics has released final readings of 2Q GDP at -19.8% (vs -20.4% on quarter expected). The Nationwide Building Society has posted its House Price Index for September at +0.9% (vs +0.5% on month expected).

The Australian dollar was bullish against most of its major pairs with the exception of the CAD.

Looking at the largest movers on Wednesday, the USD/CAD fell 65 pips to 1.3323. Using the "technical Insight" research tool under the Market Analysis tab, a bearish technical event in the USD/CAD. An inside bar pattern has been confirmed which tells us the balance between buyers and sellers, recently dominated by the bulls, is evening out. We may see lower prices ahead.

Source: GAIN Capital, Technical Insight

An Inside Bar develops during a strong uptrend, when the trading range is completely within the boundaries of the prior bar. This suggests the balance between buyers and sellers is becoming more evenly balanced i.e. a weakening in power for the bulls and increasing in power for the bears.

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