Two trades to watch: GBP/USD, WTI

Fiona Cincotta January 22, 2021 6:57 PM

GBP/USD eases back after weak retail sales data, uptrend remains WTI falls as covid cases in China rise

Charts (6)

GBP/USD declines on disappointing retail sales, uptrend remains


GBP/USD is declining towards 1.3650 after disappointing UK retail sales.

Retail sales missed forecasts +0.3% MoM in December vs. 1.2% expected.

US Dollar strength is back in play on Friday amid a souring market mood. The US Dollar Index (DXY) finds support at 90.00

Preliminary January Manufacturing & Service sector PMI data due both for UK & US. Given the aUK lockdown the service sector data is expected to show a deeper contraction.

GBP/USD technical analysis

After pushing beyond 1.37 overnight GBP/USD is trending lower. The pair trades -0.4% at 1.3665 at the time of writing.

Yet despite today’s pullback, GBP/USD continues to trade above its 20 & 50 sma on the 4 hour chart. Furthermore is remains comfortably within the ascending channel pattern dating back to early October pointing to an established bullish trend.

Immediate horizontal support is being tested at 1.3665a break through here could see 1.36 20 sma and round number tested, prior to 1.3560 lower band of the ascending channel.

On the upside the overnight swing high of 1.3745 is the level to beat. Any follow through buying could help lift the pair to 1.38.
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WTI falls as Chinese covid cases rise

Oil prices are trending lower, retreating from an 11 month high struck last week

Fears are growing that new pandemic restrictions in China could curb fuel demand in China, the world’s largest importer.

Recent gains in crude have been under pinned by recovering fuel demand in China, whilst US and Europe lagged. With this source of support potentially waning as covid cases rise and lockdowns are imposed, investors are struggling to see through the near term risks.

EIA inventory data is due later today. Data on Wednesday showed a surprise2.6 million barrel increase versus 1.2 million expected.

WTI technical analysis

WTI has been trending higher making a series of higher highs and higher lows. However after three attempts to break above $53.90, WTI is easing back.

The price has just crossed below the 50 & 20 sma on the 4 hour chart at $52.80 in a bearish signal. The RSI also favours more selling.

A break through support at $51.70 (low 15th Jan) could negate the current uptrend and lead to a deeper sell off to 50.50. 

However, should he price retake the 52.80, an attempted rebound could see the 53.90 high retested before $54.75 is targeted.

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