Two trades to watch: EUR/USD, Gold

Fiona Cincotta February 25, 2021 6:52 PM

EUR/USD eyes 1.22. Gold under pressure amid upbeat market mood.

EUR/USD eyes 1.22

EUR/USD looks towards 1.22 and currently trades at a monthly high of 1.2180 heading into the European session amid broad US Dollar weakness.

German GFK consumer confidence March -12.9 vs -15.5 Feb & -14.3 expected. Eurozone business sentiment due later. 

The expectation of a vaccine driven quick economic recovery is spurring the reflation trade boosting demand for riskier assets whilst dragging on demand for the safe haven US  Dollar.

US GDP Q4, durable goods orders and jobless claims due later.

Where next for EUR/USD?

The 4 hour chart shows that EUE/USD is trading at the upper band of a holding channel pattern dating back to mid January. 

The 20 sma has just crossed above the 50 sma in a bullish signal, the RSI is supportive of further upside and the pair appears to be on the verge of a bullish break out.

A breakout above 1.2180 could see the bulls challenge 1.22 ahead of resistance at 1.2225.

On the flipside failure to break through 1.2180 could see the pair head back to support at 1.2120 the 50 sma. It would take a break down below 1.2080 to negate the near term bullish trend and for the bears to target 1.2025

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Gold under pressure amid upbeat market mood

The underlying bullish tone to the markets is dragging on the safe haven gold.

Vaccine optimism, Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus package and Jerome Powell’s reassurances have boosted investor confidence. 

The recent rise in treasury yields is adding further pressure to the precious metal, although the weaker USD could offer some support to the commodity limiting losses.

Where next for Gold?

Gold trades below it a descending trendline on the 4 hour chart which dates back to the start of the year. However a pick up from lows of 1760 last week has seen the formation of a symmetrical triangle suggesting a break out could be on the cards.

Bulls will be looking for a move over 1810, the upper side of the triangle before turning attention to 1815 the weekly high. A break above here could see the bulls gain momentum and test horizontal resistance at 1845 ahead of 1855.

On the downside, support can be seen at 1790 the lower side of the triangle. Should the bears push through this level the monthly low at 1760 could come into play. A meaningful move below here could open the door to support at 1750.

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