Market News & Analysis

Top Story

To Hold Elections or to Not Hold Elections?

While the ongoing saga between Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn continues, the markets are waiting to hear if the EU will grant an extension of a Brexit deal from the “drop dead” date of October 31st until some time in the future.  As we wait, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson called on MPs to vote for elections on December 12th.   UK Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn has rejected the request,  however he did say “take no deal Brexit off the table, and Labour will absolutely support an election”.  This fluid situation may change if the EU grants the extension.  At this time, the most likely extension will be until January 2020.

But one must consider, is a Brexit deal the most likely outcome, as it may just be a matter of “when”?  And if so, what does that mean for the GBP?  Clearly, market participants did not like the day’s proceedings as GBP/USD is down -0.5% on the day near 1.2850.  The pair is consolidating in a rather large resistance zone between roughly 1.2790 and 1.3012 and is holding above (retesting?)  a major downward sloping trendline which come across near 1.2730. 

Source: Tradingview, City Index

On a 240-minute time frame,  a flag formation is clearly visible as the RSI unwinds from overbought conditions.  Depending on the timing of the breakout of the flag (and if it happens), the target could be near 1.3600.  The pair has currently retraced to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level from the low on October 10th to the highs on October 21st.  If GBP/USD holds above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.2705, it would be constructive for the pair.  The 1.2705 level is also horizontal support.  Below there is a support zone between the 50% Fib retracement level and the 61.8% Fib retracement level (1.2521/1.2613).  If price breaks through 1.2520, we could be back down to the recent lows near 1.2200 in a hurry.

Source: Tradingview, City Index

From time to time, GAIN Capital Australia Pty Ltd (“we”, “our”) website may contain links to other sites and/or resources provided by third parties. These links and/or resources are provided for your information only and we have no control over the contents of those materials, and in no way endorse their content. Any analysis, opinion, commentary or research-based material on our website is for information and educational purposes only and is not, in any circumstances, intended to be an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the materials on our website are complete or accurate. We are not under any obligation to update any such material.

As such, we (and/or our associated companies) will not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred by you or any third party arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information on our website (other than with regards to any duty or liability that we are unable to limit or exclude by law or under the applicable regulatory system) and any such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed.