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Inflation

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Bad news for long bond bulls following bearish break

Long bond bulls will not like the message coming from the recent price action in the TLT ETF, warning of the potential for higher yields and increased capital losses. With little technical support below where it currently sits, it places even more importance on the Fed chooses to signal this week.

US CPI Preview: GBP/USD Pulls Back to 1.2800 – Has US Inflation Bottomed?

GBP/USD remains in a bullish technical position ahead of the US CPI report - see what we're watching!

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March 12, 2024 02:15 AM
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Interest Rate Shock: What Happens If the Fed Hikes Instead of Cuts?

Traders are pricing in a small, but non-zero, chance of a Fed rate hike in 2024. Those odds could grow with a couple more hotter-than-expected inflation reports.

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March 5, 2024 06:53 AM

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Gold Weekly Forecast: XAU/USD Nears February Highs, Inflation in Focus

Gold is carrying short-term bullish momentum into the coming week, with potential for a move up toward the 2024 highs in the $2060 area.

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U.S. Dollar Post-CPI: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, XAU/USD (Gold)

The U.S. Dollar broke out and set another fresh 2024 high this morning as the currency continues to claw back Q4 losses.

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US CPI Preview: USD/JPY Tests 2024 Highs, Tame Inflation Expected

US CPI may be quiet this month, but the recent surge in the “Prices” component of the ISM PMI surveys hints that inflation could reaccelerate this Spring.

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AUD/USD weekly outlook: US inflation, AU jobs figures to drive AUD

AUD/USD traders will keep a close eye on US inflation data to decipher Fed policy, Australia's employment report to see if another month of strong job losses ensues.

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Can US inflation data make or break the US dollar? The Week Ahead

Whist the daily charts still appear favourable for another leg higher on the US dollar, the weekly charts and market positioning suggest some dark clouds may lurking above. And incoming CPI or inflation expectations data could make or break the dollar, if they lean enough in either direction.

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February 9, 2024 03:26 PM
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Gold Forecast: Commodity Deflation and Wall Street’s Short Positions

Read on to see how inflation and Fed policy could impact the price of commodities like gold this year!

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February 7, 2024 03:00 AM
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Growing risk RBA may cut rates before the Federal Reserve

There’s a growing risk the RBA may end up cutting interest rates sooner than US Federal Reserve with a slowdown in underlying inflationary pressures in the December quarter seeing markets shift forward expectation for a 25 basis point rate cut to early May.

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January 31, 2024 01:30 PM
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Gold Forecast: Why “Inflation Hedge” Gold is Falling, Despite Hot US CPI

The dollar’s strength and opportunity cost of holding gold are outweighing its inflation hedge credentials

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January 12, 2024 05:53 AM
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US CPI Forecast: USD/JPY Consolidates Just Below 145.00 Resistance Ahead of Inflation

Interestingly, the year-over-year reading on US CPI is expected to rise for only the third time since mid-2022, but the increase is expected primarily due to so-called “base effects"...

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EUR/USD Forecast: US Dollar Falls on Fading Inflation Expectations

Given the quiet economic calendar, EUR/USD may consolidate with a slight bullish bias over the next couple of days ahead US CPI and PPI.

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The Week Ahead: Has the US Dollar Index Trend Turned?

The US Dollar Index's failed breakout and sharp bearish reversal suggests that a near-term top may be in and the path of least resistance will be to the downside in the coming week.

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US CPI Preview: USD/CAD Nears 200-Day EMA Ahead of Inflation Data

Traders and economists expect the CPI report to show that consumer prices rose 0.0% m/m (3.1% y/y), with “Core” CPI expected at 0.3% m/m (4.0% y/y).

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December 12, 2023 02:24 AM

EUR/USD hits major resistance ahead of US inflation: European open

With inflation data for Europe and the US in today's European session, we take a look at EUR/USD to identify key levels and a directional bias.

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November 30, 2023 03:52 PM
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EUR/USD, USD/JPY key levels ahead of US inflation: European open

Once again, the 1-day implied volatility levels for EUR/USD and USD/JPY have blown out ahead of a busy calendar. Central bank members from the Fed, ECB, BOE and SNB will hit the wires, European GDP is also on tap ahead of the key US inflation report.

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US Dollar Analysis: USD/JPY Tests 30+ Year Highs Ahead of US CPI

With the decline in the inflation rate seemingly stalling, a higher-than-expected inflation reading is likely to be more impactful to markets.

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November 14, 2023 03:05 AM
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S&P 500 hints at swing high following Powell’s hawkish speech: The Week Ahead

Hawkish comments from Jerome Powell with the threat of further hikes snapped Wall Street’s 8-day wining streak, and hints at a swing high on the S&P 500 heading into the weekend. And that puts traders on high alert for next week’s inflation report, not to mention the threat of a government shutdown if the debt ceiling is not raised by Friday.

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November 10, 2023 10:42 AM

NZD/USD: Inflation undershoot opens the door to RBNZ rate cuts next year

New Zealand inflationary pressures moderated-more-than expected in the September quarter, taking the wind out of the NZD/USD’s sails following the expected election victory from the National Party-led coalition over the weekend.

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October 17, 2023 09:25 AM
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Can bondcano stay on the backburner? The Week Ahead

Bondcano, the phrase coined to described the sharp acceleration of bond yields to the detriment of equities, appears to be smouldering as yields have pulled back from their highs. It has certainly provided some relief for sentiment, given the well-based concerns that something was about to break in the financial system. But with the Fed members now striking a relatively dovish tone, it raises the question as to whether bond investors will now step back into the market to capitalise on attractive yields and take the sting out of bondcano’s tail.

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October 16, 2023 07:33 AM
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EUR/USD tries to snap its record losing streak: The Week Ahead – 06/10/2023

EUR/USD is on track for a record 12th consecutive losing streak. But given its hesitancy to test 1.04 and the potential for a false break of the January low, perhaps we’re finally nearing an inflection point for the battered EUR/USD.

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October 8, 2023 01:05 PM
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ASX 200 analysis: Like it or not, it’s holding above 7k post CPI

The ASX 200 has continued to show resilience around the key 7,000 support level, despite the surge on bond yields, negative sentiment and rising inflation. What if sentiment improves?

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September 27, 2023 01:04 PM