S&P500 to resume uptrend as jobs delays extends goldilocks

The most notable takeaway during a quiet overnight session was the release of the JOLTs report for April that showed job openings in the US surged to a record high of 9.28 million in April.

Uptrend 4

The most notable takeaway during a quiet overnight session was the release of the JOLTs report for April that showed job openings in the US surged to a record high of 9.28 million in April.

With an estimated 9.2 million unemployed people in the US, the JOLTs report indicates there is at least 1 job for every unemployed person.

It also supports the notion that the weaker than expected jobs reports in April and May are a reflection of labour market imbalances. Demand has rebounded more quickly than people have been able or willing to return to work.

Factors to consider here include childcare, increased unemployment benefits, and mismatched skill sets between pre-COVID positions and existing needs. Like the rise in inflation, labour market distortions are also expected to be transitory and fade during the summer months.

Presuming the Fed waits for further evidence the labour market is healing as it has indicated, and won’t be rushed into tapering due to a short-term rise in inflation, the goldilocks type environment for US equity indices remains in place and has potentially been extended.

After an almost 5% correction in May that saw the S&P500 test and rebound from weekly trendline support near 4030, the S&P500 has spent the past two weeks consolidating just below all-time highs.

Learn more about trading indices

Source Tradingview. The figures stated areas of the 9th of June 2021. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation

Should the S&P500 break/close above the May 4238.25 high in coming sessions, it would indicate the correction is complete and that the uptrend has resumed towards 4400, another 4% higher.

Aware that should the S&P500 at any time break below the uptrend support currently coming in near 4140, it would warn that another corrective leg lower is underway towards the May 4029 low, before the uptrend resumes.

More from Bitcoin

From time to time, StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (“we”, “our”) website may contain links to other sites and/or resources provided by third parties. These links and/or resources are provided for your information only and we have no control over the contents of those materials, and in no way endorse their content. Any analysis, opinion, commentary or research-based material on our website is for information and educational purposes only and is not, in any circumstances, intended to be an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the materials on our website are complete or accurate. We are not under any obligation to update any such material.

As such, we (and/or our associated companies) will not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred by you or any third party arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information on our website (other than with regards to any duty or liability that we are unable to limit or exclude by law or under the applicable regulatory system) and any such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed.