Market News & Analysis

Latest News

Top Story

S&P Pushed To Record Levels, But Can It Last?

Fiona Cincotta July 13, 2019 1:08 AM

The S&P closed at an all-time high in the previous session and has opened on the front foot in early trading today, as investors remain optimistic about a Fed rate cut at the end of the month. Last week’s strong jobs report plus higher than expected core inflation and a surprise move higher in producer prices have failed to deter the markets from the expectation of a 25 basis points, if not a 50 basis points cut on 31st July. Instead traders remain cautiously optimistic that the Fed, as indicated by Fed Chair Jay Powell in his testimony before Congress, will cut rates. The prospect of easier monetary policy and resultant lower borrowing costs has lifted the S&P through 3000 to an all-time high.

Earnings & China GDP
Whether the S&P will be able to maintain this level come next week is dubious particularly given that the US – Sino trade war could be back in focus. The week kicks off with Chinese GDP figures. The expectation is that the Chinese economy grew just 6.2% annually in the second quarter as the ongoing trade dispute and slowing global demand hit growth. A reading at this level would mark the worst rate of growth in three decades, a fact which would hit risk sentiment across the globe.

US earning season also kicks off next week with big names, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and Netflix all updating the markets. The upcoming earning season is shaping up to be a weak one. Of the 114 companies that have issued guidance for the period, 77% of them have issued negative forecasts. A weak earning season amid the ongoing trade dispute could knock investors’ appetite for risk, regardless of whether the Fed is looking to cut or not. 


Levels to watch

S&P is trading above its 50, 100 and 200 sma on the 4 hour chart. It has edged into overbought territory according to the RSI. Should the bulls pause for breath at the start of the new week, support levels to watch for in the region of 2965, 2950 and 2910.

 

TAGS: Wall Street

From time to time, GAIN Capital Australia Pty Ltd (“we”, “our”) website may contain links to other sites and/or resources provided by third parties. These links and/or resources are provided for your information only and we have no control over the contents of those materials, and in no way endorse their content. Any analysis, opinion, commentary or research-based material on our website is for information and educational purposes only and is not, in any circumstances, intended to be an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the materials on our website are complete or accurate. We are not under any obligation to update any such material.

As such, we (and/or our associated companies) will not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred by you or any third party arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information on our website (other than with regards to any duty or liability that we are unable to limit or exclude by law or under the applicable regulatory system) and any such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed.