Daily Global Macro Technicals Trend Bias Key Levels Fri 12 Jan

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By :  ,  Financial Analyst

FX – No clear signs of bullish reversal in USD & watch USD/JPY support at 110.80

  • EUR/USD – Rise in progress and staged a clear break above the 1.2010 upside trigger level as expected reinforced by a slightly hawkish tone from ECB minutes that highlighted the need to revisit its current policy message to prepare markets fir end of monetary stimulus. Maintain bullish tone above a tightened key short-term support now at 1.2000 (former minor swing high of 10 Jan 2018 + 50% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going up move from yesterday, 11 Jan European session low) for  a further potential push up to target the next resistance at 1.2125/2185 (Fibonacci projection cluster + cluster + upper boundary of the medium-term ascending channel from 07 Nov 2017 low). On the other hand, a break below  1.2000 negate the bullish tone to see a further slide to retest this week low at 1.1930/1916.
  • GPB/USD – Challenged the 1.3490 short-term support before it reversed back up. Tolerate the excess and maintain bullish bias above 1.3490/3458 support with 1.3570 as the upside trigger level (minor descending trendline from 03 Jan 2018 ) to reinforce  a further potential push up to retest 1.3612/3615 before targeting  1.3660/3710 (medium-term swing high of 20 Sep 2017 + Fibonacci projection cluster). On the other hand, a break below  1.3458 sees further potential downside towards 1.3445 support (former minor swing high area of 14 Dec 2017 + minor ascending trendline from 16 Dec 2017 low) follow by 1.3320 next (swing low area of 12/15 Dec 2017 + medium-term ascending channel support from 14 Mar 2017 low)
  • AUD/USD – Pushed up as expected. Maintain bullish bias in any dips above tightened key short-term support now at 0.7845 (minor ascendning trendline from 09 Jan 2018 low + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from 09 Jan low to today current intraday Asian session high of 0.7905) for a  further potential upleg  towards the next resistance at 0.7970 (Fibonacci cluster). On the other hand, a break below 0.7845 sees further potential downside towards 0.7730/7720 support (former minor swing high area of 02 Nov 2017 + 0.618% Fibonacci retracement of the recent rally from 19 Dec 2017 low to 06 Jan 2018 high).
  • NZD/USD – Pushed up and hit the 0.7260/7270 short-term resistance/target as expected. No clear signs of bullish exhaustion yet, maintain bullish bias with tightened key short-term support now at 0.7210 (former minor swing high area of 10 Jan 2018 + minor ascending trendline from 10 Jan) for a further potential upleg to target the next near-term resistance at 0.7340/7370 (medium-term ascending channel resistance from 08 Dec 2017 + medium-term swing  high area of  20/22 Sep 2017 + Fibonacci cluster). On the other hand, a break below 0.7210 sees further potential downside towards 0.7140 support (minor swing low area of 10 Jan 2018 + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going medium-term rally from 08 Dec 2017 low).
  • USD/JPY – Continued to hover above 111.00/110.80 short-term support. No change, maintain neutrality stance between 111.00/110.80 & 112.15. Only a clear break below 110.80 (hourly close) is likely to open up scope for another potential downleg to target the next near-term support of 110.40/15 (lower boundary of a medium-term descending channel from 06 Nov 2017 high + Fibonacci cluster).

Commodities –Short-term uptrend in Gold remains intact

  • Gold – Rise in progress as expected. Maintain bullish bias with a tightened key short-term support now at 1316 (minor swing low area of 11 Jan 2018 + medium-term ascending channel from 12 Dec 2017 low) for a further potential push up towards 1357 (swing high of 08 Sep 2017) before the significant resistance of 1375/1378 (major upside trigger level for a potential multi-month up move). On the other hand, failure to hold above 1315 should negate the bullish tone to see a slide to retest 1308/1305 next (minor swing low area of 09/10 Jan 2018 + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going rally from 12 Dec 2017 low).
  • WTI Crude (Feb 2018) – Broke above yesterday 63.55 neutrality range upper limit has validated further upside. Flip back to bullish bias in any dips above 62.25 key short-term support  (former minor swing high area 10 Jan 2018 + ascending trendline from 14 Dec 2016 low) for a further potential push up towards the next significant resistance of 62.50 (former major swing lows area of Sep 2009/May 20110). However, a break below 62.25 should see a minor corrective pull-back towards 59.40/58.95 (former swing high area of 24 Nov 2017 + medium-term ascending channel support from 31 Aug 2017 low).

Stock Indices (CFD) – Furher potential upside in S&P 500 towards 2780 keymedium-term resistance

  • US SP 500 – Broke above yesterday 2760 neutrality zone upper limit has validated a further potential push up to target the 2780 significant medium-term resistance (see weekly technical outlook). Key short-term support rests at 2752 (former minor swing high area of 11 Jan 2018 low + minor ascending trendline from 10 Jan 2018 low). However, failure to hold above 2752 negates bullish tone to see a slide back towards Wed, 10 Jan low of 2735.
  • Japan 225 – No change, maintain bullish bias above 23460 key short-term support with 23790 as the upside trigger level to reinforce the start of another potential upleg to target the next resistance at 24200 ( Fibonacci projection cluster + exit potential of the recent triangle range bullish breakout). On the other hand, a break below 23460 sees further potential downside towards the 23325 key medium-term support (see weekly technical outlook report).
  • Hong Kong 50 – Continued to inch higher as expected. No change, maintain bullish bias above 30870 for a further potential push up towards 31360 near-term resistance (2.00 Fibonacci projection from 15 Dec 2017 low). Above 31360 opens up scope for a further potential acceleration towards 31750 (major swing high area of Oct 2007+ Fibonacci projection cluster. On the other hand, a break below 30870 sees a deeper corrective slide towards 30070 key medium-term support  (see weekly technical outlook report).
  • Australia 200 – Continued to  hover above 6026 key medium-term support (see weekly technical outlook). No change, maintain bullish bias with 6097 as upside trigger to reinforce the start of another potential upleg to retest 6160 before targeting the next near-term resistance at 6190 (1.618 Fibonacci projection of the up move from 06 Dec 2017 low). However, a break below 6026 should see a deeper corrective slide to retest the recent triangle range support of  5940/10.
  • Germany 30 – Broke below the 13240 key short-term support triggered by a knee-jerk reaction from a strong EUR/USD due to hawkish ECB minutes. Printed a low of 13149 before it managed to claw back to 13240 in yesterday,10 Jan U.S. session. Despite yesterday slide/underperformance against the rest of the major indices, it did not break below the key 13000 key medium-term which implies that the up move from 02 Jan 2018 low has not been invalidated. In the short-term, prefer to turn neutral first between 13000 & 13350. Only a break above 13350 will increase the odds of another potential upleg to target the 13530/560 near-term resistance (07 Nov 2017 swing high) in the first step.

*Levels are obtained from City Index Advantage TraderPro platform

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Related tags: Forex Commodities Indices

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