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Daily FX Technical Trend Bias/Key Levels (Tues 12 Jan)

FX – USD strength remains intact

  • EUR/USD – Trend bias: Down. The pair has broken down below the 1.1320 support of a medium-term ascending range configuration in place since 12 Nov 2018 low. It is likely that the pair has kickstarted  a potential impulsive down move sequence within its major primary down trend in place since 16 Feb 2018 high. Flip to a bearish bias in any bounces below the key short-term resistance at 1.1325 (former minor swing low areas of 07/09 Feb 2019 + minor descending trendline from 31 Jan 2019 high) for a further potential push down to retest the 1.1220/1214 swing low area of 13 Nov 2018 in the first step. However, a break above 1.1325 negates the bearish tone for a corrective rebound towards 1.1390/1420 (50%/61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent slide from 31 Jan 2019 high to 11 Feb 2019 low).
  • GBP/USD – Trend bias: Push down within medium-term range configuration. The pair has broken below the 1.3010/3000  pull-back support of the former complex descending range resistance from 20 Sep 2018 which suggested that the recent breakout seen on 23 Jan 2019 was a bullish failure. Flip back to a bearish bias in any bounces below the key short-term resistance at 1.2935 (former minor swing low areas of 08/11 Feb 2019 + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the recent slide from 26 Jan 2019 high to 11 Feb 2019 low of 1.2844) for a further potential push down to target the next near-term support at 1.2780/2730 (former minor congestion area from 31 Dec 2018/10 Jan 2019 + Fibonacci retracement/expansion cluster). However, a break above 1.2935 negates the bearish tone for a corrective rebound towards 1.2990/3030 intermediate resistance (minor descending trendline from 26 Jan 2019 high + minor swing high area of 07 Feb 2019 + 38.2%/50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent slide from 26 Jan 2019 high to 11 Feb 2019 low).  
  • USD/JPY – Trend bias: Push up within a major sideways range in place since 10 May 2017. The pair has pushed up as expected and surpassed the 110.00 minor range resistance/target. Maintain bullish bias in any dips with 110.00 as the key short-term support (former minor range resistance from 19 Jan/07 Feb 2019) for a further potential push up to target the next intermediate resistance at 111.40/80 (minor swing high areas of 21/27 Dec 2018 + Fibonacci expansion cluster). However, failure to hold at 110.00 indicates a failure bullish breakout to resume its medium-term corrective decline to retest the 108.80/50 swing low area of 31 Jan 2019 in the first step.
  • AUD/USD – Trend bias: Down. The pair has broken down below the minor ascending trendline support from the 03 Jan 2019 flash crash swing low area. Flip to bearish bias in any bounces below the key short-term resistance at 0.7140 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the recent decline from 05 Feb 2019 high to today, 12 Feb Asian session intraday low of 0.7050 + 06 Feb 2019 minor swing high) for a further potential push down to target the next near-term support at 0.7000 (Fibonacci retracement/expansion cluster). However, a break above 0.7140 negates the bearish tone for a corrective rebound towards the 0.7175/7200 intermediate resistance (minor descending trendline from 31 Jan 2019 high + pull-back resistance of the former ascending trendline support from 03 Jan 2019 swing low area +  50%/61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going decline from 31 Jan 2019 high to 12 Feb 2019 Asian session intraday low of 0.7050).
  • NZD/USD – Trend bias: Down. The pair has broken down below the minor ascending trendline from 03 Jan 2019 swing low. Flip to a bearish bias in any bounces below the key short-term resistance at 0.6770 (the minor swing high areas of 08/11 Feb 2019) for a further potential push down to target the next near-term support at 0.6670/6640  (ascending trendline from 09 Oct 2018 low + Fibonacci retracement/expansion cluster). However, a break above 0.6770 negates the bearish tone for a corrective rebound towards the 0.6830 intermediate resistance (the pull-back of the former minor ascending trendline support from 03 Jan 2019 low + 50% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going slide from 01 Feb 2019 high to 12 Feb 2019, Asian session current intraday low of 0.6716).                    

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