Market News & Analysis
Daily FX Technical Trend Bias/Key Levels (Thurs 07 Mar)
Kelvin Wong March 7, 2019 2:04 PM
FX – Mix bag with risk of AUD & NZD shaping minor rebound
- EUR/USD – Trend bias: Push down within range. The pair has broken down below the lower limit of the short-term neutrality range at 1.1360 as per highlighted in our previous report and dropped towards the expected minor support/target at 1.1285 before it traded sideways (printed a low of 1.1285 in yesterday, 06 Mar U.S. session). No clear signs of bullish reversal yet, prefer to have a bearish bias in any bounces below key short-term resistance at 1.1360 (minor descending trendline from the swing high area of 28 Feb 2019 + Fibonacci retracement/expansion cluster) for a further potential slide to target 1.1235 (15 Feb 2019 low + lower boundary of the medium-term descending triangle range configuration in place since 12 Nov 2018). However, a break above 1.1360 negates the bearish tone for a push back up towards 1.1390/1405 (the upper boundary of the medium-term descending triangle range configuration).
- GBP/USD – Trend bias: Push up within range. The pair has inched lower towards the 1.3110/3090 support (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent push up from 22 Feb 2019 low to 27 Feb 2019 high + former minor swing high area of 21 Feb 2018) and ended yesterday, 07 Mar U.S session with a daily bullish “Hammer” candlestick pattern, a positive follow through seen in the prior session (Tues, 05 Mar) daily “Dragonfly Doji” candlestick pattern. Flip back to a bullish bias with key short-term support at 1.3090 for a potential push up to target the next intermediate resistance at 1.3270/3290 (the minor swing high areas of 01/04 Mar 2019) in the first step. However, failure to hold at 1.3090 invalidates the bullish tone for a continuation of the slide towards the next support at 1.2950/2900 (the medium-term ascending trendline from 12 Dec 2018 low + former swing high area of 13 Feb 2019).
- USD/JPY – Trend bias: Down. The pair managed to break above the 111.80 resistance (the former medium-term swing low areas of 15/26 Oct 2018) on last Fri, 01 Mar 2019 (printed a high of 112.07 and a close of 111.93) but thereafter, it did not have a positive follow through in the last 3 days and reintegrated back below 111.80. An interesting element to note is that the lack of positive price action follow through occurs at the upper boundary of a medium-term ascending channel in place since the 03 Jan 2019 flash crash swing low area and the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 12 Nov 2018 high to 03 Jan 2019 low). Bearish bias in any bounces below 112.20 key medium-term resistance for a potential slide to test the next near-term support at 111.05 (former minor swing high areas of 14/26 Feb 2019). However, a break above 112.20 invalidates the bearish tone for a squeeze up to target the next intermediate resistance at 113.60 (medium-term swing high area of 13/14 Dec 2018).
- AUD/USD – Trend bias: Push up within range. The pair has managed to undergo the expected slide and met the target/support of 0.7030/7020 (neckline support of a minor bearish reversal “Head & Shoulders” configuration in motion since 11 Jan 2019 swing high). It has printed a low of 0.7017 in yesterday, 06 Mar U.S session and exited its oversold region as seen on its 4-hour Stochastic oscillator. Now at risk of shaping a bounce to retrace it’s the recent slide from 27 Feb 2019 high of 0.7200. Key short-term support at 0.7020 for a potential push up to target the intermediate resistance of 0.7090/7115 before another downleg materialises. However, failure to hold at 0.7020 shall trigger the “Head & Shoulders” bearish breakdown to target the next support at 0.6950 in the first step (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the rebound from 03 Jan 2019 flash crash low to 31 Jan 2019 high).
- NZD/USD – Trend bias: Push up within range. The pair has managed to inch down lower within its medium-term “Symmetrical Triangle” range configuration in motion since 04 Dec 2018 swing high and met the first support/target at 0.6756 (printed a low of 0.6751 in yesterday, 06 Mar U.S. session). Right now, the 4-hour Stochastic oscillator has shaped a bullish divergence signal at its oversold region, thus the pair now faces the risk of a minor bounce at this juncture. Key short-term support at 0.6750 for a potential push up to target the intermediate resistance of 0.6830/6850 (minor swing high areas of 04/05 Mar 2019 + 50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent slide from 27 Feb 2019 high to 06 Mar 2019 low). However, failure to hold at 0.6750 shall see a further slide to test 0.6720 next (the lower boundary of the medium-term “Symmetrical Triangle” range configuration in motion since 04 Dec 2018 swing high
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