Market News & Analysis
Daily FX Technical Trend Bias/Key Levels (Fri 15 Mar)
Kelvin Wong March 15, 2019 3:14 PM
FX – USD remains on support against AUD & NZD & watch USD/JPY key resistance at 112.20
- EUR/USD – Trend bias: Push up within range. The minor slide from yesterday, 14 Mar Asian session high of 1.1337 has managed to stall at the 1.1295 tightened key short-term support as per highlighted in our previous report (printed a low of 1.1293 in early U.S. session before an hourly close back above 1.1295). No change, maintain bullish bias above 1.1295 key short-term support (minor ascending trendline from 08 Mar 2019 low + 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the entire rebound from 08 Mar 2019 low to 13 Mar 2019 high) for a further potential push up to target the next intermediate resistances at 1.1360 and 1.1400 (01 Mar 2019 minor swing high area + medium-term descending trendline from 24 Sep 2018 high). However, failure to hold at 1.1295 shall negate the bullish tone for a deeper pull-back towards the next support at 1.1250/1230 (minor swing low area of 11/12 Mar 2019 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the entire rebound from 08 Mar 2019 low to 13 Mar 2019 high).
- GBP/USD – Trend bias: Sideways. No change, maintain neutrality stance between 1.3350 and 1.3200 (13 Mar U.S. session low + minor ascending trendline from 11 Mar 2019 low). An hourly close below 1.3200 shall revive the push down within range scenario for a retest on the 1.3000/2950 support (11 Mar 2019 swing low + ascending support from 03 Jan 2019). On the other hand, a clearance with a daily close above 1.3350 opens up scope for a potential multi-week up move to target the next intermediate resistance at 1.3640/3710 in the first step. (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the previous decline from 17 Apr 2018 high to 03 Jan 2019 low + former swing low area of 01 Mar 2018.
- USD/JPY – Trend bias: Push down within range. The pair has inched higher and surpassed above the upper limit of the short-term neutrality zone at 111.60 where it has printed a current intraday high of 111.90 in today, 15 Mar Asian session ahead of BOJ monetary policy decision announcement out later today. Today current intraday high of 111.90 has almost reached the next intermediate resistance at 112.10/20 (the former medium-term swing low areas of 20 Nov/06 Dec 2018) coupled with a bearish divergence signal seen in the 1-hour RSI oscillator at its overbought zone since yesterday, 14 Mar U.S. session. Flip to a bearish bias below 112.10/20 key short-term resistance for a potential slide back to retest 110.75 (minor swing low areas of 28 Feb/08 Mar 2019). However, a clearance above 112.20 sees the continuation of the on-going corrective rebound towards 113.70 (the swing highs of 03/13 Dec 2018) and even the 114.25/40 major range resistance in place since 10 May 2017.
- AUD/USD – Trend bias: Push down within range. No change, maintain bearish bias below the key short-term resistance at 0.7100 for a potential push down to target the 0.7020/0.7000 neckline support of the minor “Head & Shoulders” bearish reversal configuration in motion since 11 Jan 2019 swing high. However, a clearance above 0.7100 invalidates the bearish scenario for a further push up towards the next intermediate resistance at 0.7200 (the minor swing high areas of 21/27 Feb 2019 + descending trendline from 03 Dec 2018 high).
- NZD/USD - Trend bias: Push down within range. The pair has staged the expected push down to hit the short-term support/target at 0.6805 (the minor congestion area of 06/09 Mar 2019) in yesterday, 14 Mar U.S. session before it rebounded to print a current intraday high of 0.6852 in today, 15 Mar Asian session. Maintain bearish bias below the 0.6870 key short-term resistance for a potential push down back to retest 0.6805 and an hourly close below it opens up scope for a further slide towards the next support at 0.6750/6730 (minor swing low areas of 06/08 Mar 2019 + lower boundary of the medium-term “Symmetrical Triangle” range configuration in motion since 08 Oct 2018 low). However, a break above 0.6870 negates the bearish tone for a push up to test 0.6900/6920 (the upper boundary of the medium-term “Symmetrical Triangle” range configuration in motion since 08 Oct 2018 low).
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