Market News & Analysis


Daily Forex Technical Strategy

EUR/USD – Potential minor corrective bounce


click to enlarge chart

  • In our previous report, we have turned neutral on the pair from an initial bearish bias due to mix elements. 
  • After a hovering around the lower limit of the neutrality zone at 1.1000 with a bullish break above the hourly RSI oscillator former descending resistance coupled with a prior bullish divergence signal, we flip to a bullish bias for a potential minor rebound to test the intermediate resistance zone at 1.1090/1105 (minor swing high area of 06/07 Nov 2019 & the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 31 Oct high to 14 Nov 2019 low).
  • On the other hand, a an hourly close below 1.0990 sees a further drop towards 1.0940 (also the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the recent up move from 01 Oct low to 18 Oct 2019 high).

GBP/USD – 1.2910 remains the key resistance to watch


click to enlarge chart

  • The pair has continued to churn higher but remains below the 1.2910 key short-term pivotal resistance with hourly RSI oscillator at its overbought region.
  • Maintain bearish bias for a further potential drop to target the near-term support at 1.2700 (lower limit of a minor descending range configuration from 21 Oct 2019 swing high & 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the recent up move from 09 Oct low to 21 Oct 2019 high).
  • However, a clearance with an hourly close above 1.2910 revives the bullish tone for a continuation of the corrective upleg sequence within a major range configuration to target next intermediate resistance at 1.3210/3240 (03 Apr/03 May 2019 swing high area & Fibonacci expansion).

USD/JPY – Retesting pull-back resistance of former Ascending Wedge support


click to enlarge chart

  • The pair has drifted down lower as expected and broke below the medium-term “Ascending Wedge” support from 26 Aug 2019 low.  Maintain bearish bias with a tightened key short-term pivotal resistance now at 108.90 (former minor swing low areas of 11/13 Nov 2019 & 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent slide from 12 Nov high to yesterday, 14 Nov U.S. session low of 108.22) for a further potential drop towards 107.90 near-term support in the first step.
  • On the other hand, a clearance with an hourly close above 108.90 negates the bearish tone for a squeeze up to retest the 07/08 Nov 2019 swing high area at 109.50.

AUD/USD – Further potential drop


click to enlarge chart

  • The pair has drifted down lower and hit the first short-term target/support of 0.6800. Maintain bearish bias below a tightened key short-term pivotal resistance now at 0.6845 (former minor congestion area of 09/13 Nov & minor descending resistance from 05 Nov 2019 high) for a further potential push down to target the next near-term support at 0.6720 (minor swing area of 16 Oct 2019 and the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the recent rebound from 02 Oct low to 31 Oct 2019 high).
  • On the other hand, a clearance with an hourly close above 0.6845 negates the bearish tone for squeeze up to retest 0.6900/6930 (range resistance of 31 Oct/05 Nov 2019 & the major descending channel resistance from 03 Dec 2018 high).

Charts are from eSignal


From time to time, GAIN Capital Australia Pty Ltd (“we”, “our”) website may contain links to other sites and/or resources provided by third parties. These links and/or resources are provided for your information only and we have no control over the contents of those materials, and in no way endorse their content. Any analysis, opinion, commentary or research-based material on our website is for information and educational purposes only and is not, in any circumstances, intended to be an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the materials on our website are complete or accurate. We are not under any obligation to update any such material.

As such, we (and/or our associated companies) will not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred by you or any third party arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information on our website (other than with regards to any duty or liability that we are unable to limit or exclude by law or under the applicable regulatory system) and any such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed.