Market News & Analysis

CME Group bullish breakout holding above 200-day MA

Medium-term technical outlook on CME Group

click to enlarge charts

Key Levels (1 to 3 months)

Pivot (key support): 197.08

Resistances: 224.91 & 244.60/248.70

Next support: 161.40

Directional Bias (1 to 3 months)

Bullish bias above 197.08 key medium-term pivotal support for potential up move to retest the 224.91 current all-time high printed on 06 Sep 2019. A daily close above 224.91 reinforces the start of another impulsive up move sequence to target the next resistance zone at 244.60/248.70.

On the other hand, a break with a daily close below 197.08 invalidates the bearish tone for a corrective decline to towards the major support at 161.40.

Key elements

  • The 12% + decline from its 224.91 current all-time high has managed to stall at the 200-day acting as a support at around 197.08 that coincides with the former major swing high area of 19 Nov 2018.
  • Yesterday’s price action has staged a bullish breakout above a medium-term descending trendline from 06 Sep 2019 high. In addition, the daily RSI oscillator has staged a parallel bullish breakout after it has traced out a higher low. These observations suggest a revival of medium-term upside momentum.
  • The next medium-term resistance zone of 244.60/248.70 is defined by the upper boundary of a medium-term ascending channel from 22 Mar 2019 low and a Fibonacci expansion cluster.
  • The ratio charts of CME against the market (S&P 500) and its sector (Financials) are advocating outperformance of CME.
  • CME has a low beta value of 0.17 as measured against the S&P 500 has started to show positive elements, thus it can offer diversification benefits against current market risk such as U.S-China trade tension.
Charts are from eSignal 

From time to time, GAIN Capital Australia Pty Ltd (“we”, “our”) website may contain links to other sites and/or resources provided by third parties. These links and/or resources are provided for your information only and we have no control over the contents of those materials, and in no way endorse their content. Any analysis, opinion, commentary or research-based material on our website is for information and educational purposes only and is not, in any circumstances, intended to be an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the materials on our website are complete or accurate. We are not under any obligation to update any such material.

As such, we (and/or our associated companies) will not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred by you or any third party arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information on our website (other than with regards to any duty or liability that we are unable to limit or exclude by law or under the applicable regulatory system) and any such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed.