A review of the week past and the week ahead

Charts (3)

What mattered last week:

  • Despite a softer jobs report for November, the S&P500 rose 1.69% last week on vaccine optimism and rising expectations of additional fiscal stimulus.
  • Supported also by falling new coronavirus cases in Europe and the UK as a result of lockdown.
  • Australian Q3 GDP data printed at 3.3%, well above expectations of 2.5% growth, driven by robust consumer spending.
  • Volatility, as measured by the VIX index, closed unchanged at 20.8.
  • U.S. 10-year yields closed 12bp higher, near 0.97%.
  • Gold closed 2.90% higher, near $1838.00.
  • A fifth straight week of gains for crude oil closing near $46.26/bbl.
  • The ASX200 closed 0.50% higher at 6634.1, locking in five straight weeks of gains.  
  • In FX, the AUDUSD closed the week near .7425, supported by surging commodity prices and broad-based U.S. dollar weakness.

For the week ahead, the key events are:

Australia: RBA Governor Lowe speech (Monday), Nab business confidence, and house price index (Tuesday), Westpac consumer confidence (Wednesday).

New Zealand: Business NZ PMI (Friday).

China: Balance of trade, foreign exchange reserves (Monday), CPI (Wednesday).

  • CPI (Wednesday): Falling food prices are expected to see inflation fall to zero in November.

Japan: Reuters Tankan, current account (Tuesday), machinery and machine orders (Wednesday).

U.S: Jolts job openings (Wednesday), CPI (Thursday).

Canada: BoC Interest rate decision (Wednesday).

Euro Area: German industrial production (Monday), German and EA ZEW economic sentiment index, (Tuesday), German balance of trade and current account (Wednesday), ECB interest rate decision (Thursday).

  • ECB interest rate decision (Thursday): The market consensus is for the ECB to expand its QE and bank lending programs to counter the slowdown from lockdowns.

UK: Halifax house price index (Monday), balance of trade, industrial production, and GDP (Thursday).

Brexit negotiations will continue in the hope of a deal before year-end.

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