A review of the week past and the week ahead

Charts (3)


What mattered last week:

  • The S&P500 fell -0.53% as global coronavirus cases continued to surge and stimulus talks remained stalled.
  • As well as nerves ahead of the U.S. election, now just one week away.
  • Partially offset by good economic data was well as September quarter earnings surprises.
  • Volatility, as measured by the VIX index, closed higher at 27.6.
  • U.S. 10-year yields closed 9bp higher, near 0.84%.
  • Gold closed mostly unchanged near $1902.
  • Crude oil closed -3.09% lower at $39.85/bbl.
  • The ASX200 closed flattish, near 6167.00.
  • In FX, the AUDUSD closed higher near .7140, helped by a weaker U.S. dollar.

For the week ahead, the key events are:

Australia: Q3 CPI (Wednesday), private sector credit (Friday).

  • Q3 CPI (Wednesday): Headline inflation is expected to rise by 1.5% q/q after the end of free childcare and a rebound in petrol prices, taking the y/y rate to back into positive territory at 0.6%. Underlying inflation is expected to rise by  0.3% q/q taking the y/y rate to 1.3%.

New Zealand: Balance of trade.

China: Industrial profits, NBS manufacturing, and non-manufacturing PMI.

Japan: Bank of Japan interest rate decision (Thursday), employment, and industrial production (Friday).

  • Bank of Japan interest rate decision (Thursday): The Bank of Japan is expected to leave monetary policy unchanged and reiterate a strong easing bias.

U.S: Durable goods, house price index, CB consumer confidence (Tuesday), Q3 GDP, jobless claims (Thursday), personal income, personal spending, core PCE price index (Friday).

  • GDP (Thursday):  3Q GDP is expected to come in at +32.5% annualized after a -31.4% annualized decline in Q2.

September quarter earnings season continues with reports due this week from AMZN, AAPL, FB, and GOOG.

Canada: BoC interest rate decision, (Thursday), building permits, and GDP (Friday).

  • BoC interest rate decision (Thursday): The BoC is expected to leave the overnight target at 0.25%, the forward guidance on rates and QE unchanged, as well as its purchases of C$5bn/week of GoC bonds.

Euro Area: German Ifo business survey (Monday), German employment and ECB interest rate meeting (Thursday), German CPI, GDP, and retail sales as well as EA GDP, unemployment and CPI (Friday).

  • ECB interest rate meeting (Thursday): The ECB is expected to leave monetary policy on hold this month before an expected increase in QE in December.

UK: Nothing of note.

From time to time, GAIN Capital Australia Pty Ltd (“we”, “our”) website may contain links to other sites and/or resources provided by third parties. These links and/or resources are provided for your information only and we have no control over the contents of those materials, and in no way endorse their content. Any analysis, opinion, commentary or research-based material on our website is for information and educational purposes only and is not, in any circumstances, intended to be an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the materials on our website are complete or accurate. We are not under any obligation to update any such material.

As such, we (and/or our associated companies) will not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred by you or any third party arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information on our website (other than with regards to any duty or liability that we are unable to limit or exclude by law or under the applicable regulatory system) and any such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed.