A review of the week past and the week ahead

Charts (3)

What mattered last week:

  • The S&P500 closed up 2.32% for the week, at new record highs following positive progress on developing a COVID19 vaccine.
  • Supported by further clarity on the result of the US Presidential election.
  • Despite the acceleration in new COVID19 cases across much of the world.
  • Leading to lockdowns in Europe, and a tightening of restrictions in some U.S. states.
  • Volatility, as measured by the VIX index, fell again to 23.1.
  • U.S. 10-year yields closed 8bp higher near 0.90%.
  • Gold closed $60 lower near $1889.00.
  • Crude oil closed 8% higher near $40.13/bbl.
  • The ASX200 closed 3.5% higher at 6405.2, following the lead from offshore equity markets.
  • In FX, the AUDUSD closed mostly unchanged near .7270.

For the week ahead, the key events are:

Australia: RBA Governor Lowe Speech (Monday), RBA meeting minutes (Tuesday), RBA Governor Lowe Speech and wage price index (Wednesday), labour force (Thursday), retail sales (Friday).

  • Labour force (Thursday): The expectation is for a 30k drop in jobs in October, and the unemployment rate to rise to 7.2%. However, the market is expected to look through this weakness, given the expectation of a stronger number in November, following the easing of lockdown restrictions in Victoria.

New Zealand: Global dairy auction and PPI (Wednesday).

China: House price index, employment, fixed asset investment, retail sales, industrial production (Friday).

Japan: Q3 GDP (Monday), balance of trade (Wednesday), CPI, and Jibun PMI’s (Friday).

  • Q3 GDP (Monday): GDP is expected to rise by 4.4% in Q3 following a -7.9% contraction in Q2.

U.S: Retail sales, industrial production (Tuesday), housing starts and building permits (Wednesday), jobless claims, and home sales (Thursday).

A host of Fed speakers will be on the wires including Daly, Williams, Bostic, Bullard, and Williams.

Canada: CPI (Wednesday), retail sales (Friday).

Euro Area: EU leaders meeting (Thursday).

UK: CPI (Wednesday), Gfk consumer confidence, and retail sales (Friday).

From time to time, StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (“we”, “our”) website may contain links to other sites and/or resources provided by third parties. These links and/or resources are provided for your information only and we have no control over the contents of those materials, and in no way endorse their content. Any analysis, opinion, commentary or research-based material on our website is for information and educational purposes only and is not, in any circumstances, intended to be an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the materials on our website are complete or accurate. We are not under any obligation to update any such material.

As such, we (and/or our associated companies) will not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred by you or any third party arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information on our website (other than with regards to any duty or liability that we are unable to limit or exclude by law or under the applicable regulatory system) and any such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed.