A review of the week past and the week ahead

Charts (3)

What mattered last week:

  • The S&P500 fell -1.20% last week as hopes of a fiscal stimulus deal before year-end faded and rising new coronavirus cases weighed.
  • As well as the increased possibility of a “no-deal” Brexit.
  • U.S economic data was mixed. Notably, rising jobless claims provided further confirmation employment growth is stalling.
  • Volatility, as measured by the VIX index, closed higher at 23.3%
  • U.S. 10-year yields closed 6bp lower, near 0.91%.
  • Gold closed flat near $1839.00.
  • A sixth straight week of gains for crude oil closing near $46.57/bbl.
  • The ASX200 closed flat at 6642.6 as surging commodity prices supported the market.   
  • In FX, the AUDUSD closed the week up near .7530 once again supported by surging commodity prices and broad-based U.S. dollar weakness.

For the week ahead, the key events are:

Australia: RBA meeting minutes (Tuesday), Markit PMI’s, and HIA new home sales (Wednesday), Labour force report (Thursday).

  • Labour force report (Thursday): The expectation is for a gain of +50k new jobs in November following last month's 179,000 rise. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 7.0%.

New Zealand: Westpac consumer confidence (Monday), global dairy trade and current account (Wednesday), Q3 GDP (Thursday), ANZ Roy Morgan consumer confidence, ANZ business confidence, and balance of trade (Friday).

China: Fixed asset investment, industrial production, retail sales, and employment (Tuesday).

Japan: Tankan business survey (Monday), Jibun Bank PMI (Wednesday), CPI, and BoJ interest rate meeting (Friday).

U.S: Retail sales and Markit PMI (Wednesday), FOMC interest rate decision (Thursday).

  • FOMC interest rate meeting (Thursday): Will remain dovish, however, there is likely to be some acknowledgment of upside risks stemming from the vaccine's arrival.

Canada: CPI (Wednesday), retail sales (Friday).

Euro Area: German and EA Markit PMIs (Wednesday), German IFO (Friday).

UK: Employment (Tuesday), CPI (Wednesday), Bank of England interest rate meeting (Thursday), retail sales (Friday).

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