Market News & Analysis

The rise of the Far Right AfD party at last weekend’s German election has grabbed the headlines, but as we said in our earlier note, Merkel remains as leader and the Far Right will not have power even if they have won a seats in the Bundestag. The market reaction is still mild, the Dax has rebounded after earlier gapping lower, while the euro remain...

The euro has opened 0.4% lower in early trading on Sunday evening as the market digests the results from the German election. Although Merkel will become Chancellor for her fourth term, Merkel’s party - the CDU - saw its vote share slip by approx. 8%, about the same as the Far Right’s AfP’s vote share increased.

Daily Key Short Term Technical Levels & Trend Bias for FX, Commodities & Indices

The gyrations in the FX market during May’s Brexit speech in Florence speaks volumes about how it has been received

When UK PM Theresa May takes to the stage in Florence on Friday to give her lauded Brexit speech, she had better deliver. Not only will the eyes of the world and the financial market be upon her, but this speech has held up the fourth round of Brexit negotiations by a week.

Unless we see a shock outcome in the German elections on Sunday, the DAX looks set to expand further to the upside in the short term outlook.

The pound is drifting into tomorrow’s crucial Brexit speech from Theresa May. Her set piece in Florence will determine whether the pound finishes the week at 1.37 or back towards 1.32. The range-bound GBP/USD rate this week belies the importance of May’s speech as it will set out the next policy steps for the Brexit process.

Daily Key Short Term Technical Levels & Trend Bias for FX, Commodities & Indices

Daily Key Short Term Technical Levels & Trend Bias for FX, Commodities & Indices

The recent slide seen in EUR/GBP has stabilised ahead of UK retail sales & FOMC

On Sunday 25th September Germany will go to the polls. Chancellor Angela Merkel is widely expected to win her fourth term in power, Oddschecker has Merkel’s victory at a 97% probability. Get our take on what this means for markets.